Analytics vs. Instinct – A Baseball Point of View

In a recent article by Robert Regis Hyle at National Underwriter’s propertycasualty360.com, a baseball statistic is used as an example to illustrate the value of analytics over “gut feelings” to make decisions, and how such reliance on analytics has made its way into the insurance industry with respect to business decisions.  The article discusses the value of bunting with a runner on first base and no outs and includes the following quote from baseball writer Joe Posnanski of Sports Illustrated,

“They have been playing baseball for more than 100 years.  And for more than 100 years, more runs have scored with a man on first and nobody out than with a man on second and one out. This has been true every single season for more than 100 years.  Every single one.” 

Yet, despite the statistics, baseball managers still try to manufacture runs by bunting the runner over to second base and sacrificing the batter.

Some people may take the view that analytics should solely drive one’s business decisions, others may go strictly on instincts, while others may, and probably do, fall somewhere in between.  Where do your views fall?  Does it depend on the circumstances such as pricing vs. reserving?  Does it depend on whether it’s commercial lines vs. personal lines?  How about the audience to whom the information will be presented such as company management vs. regulators?  Or maybe there is something else?  Let us know what you think.